Current prevalence estimates indicate that there are almost 60 million people, worldwide, with dementia. A new demographic analysis has forecast that this number will triple by 2050, underlining the critical need to redouble efforts for improved prevention, management and care.
The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk factors (GBD) study is a comprehensive, global study that analyses over 260 causes of death, 369 diseases and injuries, and 87 risk factors across over 200 countries. In the January issue of the Lancet Public Health journal, collaborators on the GBD Dementia Forecasting team published their latest results on the prevalence and incidence of dementia worldwide. In their article, they developed dementia forecasting estimates for adults aged 40 and over for 195 countries, using figures on relative risk and forecasted risk prevalence to estimate the prevalence of dementia in different countries by 2050. Their findings indicate that the number of people with dementia will increase in all countries, with the largest proportionate increases found in Africa and the Middle East (367%).
In comparison, a rise of 53% is projected in the high-income Asia-Pacific region, and 74% in Europe. In total, they estimate that the number of people with dementia worldwide will reach 153 million by 2050, tripling relative to the prevalence figures for 2019. According to the researchers, most of the increases are attributable to population ageing and population growth. Although they found some increases in certain countries linked to risk factors such as smoking and obesity, in many cases these were counterbalanced by the reduction of dementia risk thanks to increased projected educational attainment.
Consistent with previous reports, the GBD study estimates that there will still be more women than men with dementia in 2050, with an average female-to-male ratio of 1.67. Together, these data underscore the need for public health planning and policy efforts to meet the needs of people with dementia, now and in the future.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(21)00249-8/fulltext